As the economy improves, it may be harder and harder for the Obama campaign to gain traction with arguments that Romney’s personal economic advantages mean he is out of touch with suffering Americans. But Republicans, by airing these arguments early, are providing in-kind donations to the president’s re-election campaign.
Romney said today he pays an effective tax rate of around 15 percent, owing largely to the way he makes his money. Actually, aside from speaking engagements, he doesn’t make a lot of money, because he already has a lot of money. His investments, largely through dividends, kick in the rest. (NPR notes that the Obamas, you know, work for a living and pay a tax rate closer to that of their income bracket — about 26%.)
When the economy is historically bad, and people are losing their jobs, it is easier to exploit submerged class and status resentments. When the economy is improving, people, and Americans especially, tend to switch moods relatively rapidly and become aspirational and much less class conscious. That’s one reason I think political populism doesn’t work in times of relative economic prosperity even when the gap between the rich and the poor is large and growing.
Late last year, Jim Messina, Obama’s campaign manager, told me that Mitt Romney will be called to account, over and over for his Bain record, and for his attitude — for the way he dismisses, often with a throwaway phrase, how people can suffer when the vicissitudes of the economy throw surprises. More viscerally, Romney is easily cast as the guy “who fired you, or fired your brother, or your friend,” Messina told me. I asked Messina if Obama could do this if the economy was improving. I don’t remember the exact response, but Messina was confident that the charges would stick in any environment.
Over the past few months, Democrats and the Presidents have finally figured out how to harness economic anxieties in a politically fruitful way. It took them…well, decades. But better late than never, I suppose, at least for them.
But the economy really is getting better. An exogenous shock from Europe notwithstanding, it is indeed possible that by the time Obama and Romney start to argue directly at each other, poll numbers showing pessimism about the future will begin to reverse.
That is to say, really, that the arguments are going to be less important than the environment. If the environment is better, the arguments, the contrasts — these won’t matter as much. The Democratic base is in a state of excitement — witness the 1 million signatures that the Wisconsin Democratic Party gathered to put Scott Walker on the recall block — and growing confidence of an Obama victory will probably sustain their passion through the summer.
