Question 29e

Marc Ambinder My Iowa Caucus tweet storm.  And I agree with Chuck Todd: What the hell is Romney going to do about expectations in New Hampshire now? I agree with Fineman: “A wounded Newt…is more dangerous than a winning Newt,” He’s pivoted to the reformist mantle. And he’s mad.
@petersuderman Bipolar Twitterlarity

But he’s in for a sustained beating and front-runner scrutiny that he hasn’t faced until now.

Since I’m no longer prohibited from making foolish predictions, I still think Romney’s got the n’m’nation in the bag.

IF caucus turnout is same for the GOP than it was in 2008…. given all the voter registration that the GOP has been doing in the state…

@
@FHQ i’ve claritifed that
@DemConWatch I maeant in March — and have corrected. Thanks

One CLARIFICATION: GOP proportional allocation applies to March (inc. Super Tuesday) contests only. Used the wrong preposition earlier.

After all that, back to reading about neuroscience.

That means that, there;s a lot of shi… I almost went there, but I’m saving the expletive.. that we don’t know about what’s going to happen

And — MAJOR thing to remember if this race is close: tonight is s straw poll. Actual delegate selection BEGINS in Feb. It’s NON-BINDING


Here’s a state-by-state breakdown:: bit.ly/nBTY0z — thru March, all contests award proportionally.

Learn these numbers: delegate per state: bit.ly/nBTY0z NB: Florida’s penalty means it awards only 50, sted 99. (Iowa awards 25)…

RETWEETING Tony J. Lee
Since this feels like a restrictor plate NASCAR race, if Santorum wins, may regret having small Santorum logo on vest—need bigger branding

The entrance polls suggest that the GOP electorate hasnt changed much from 2008. That makes Santorum’s NH flirtations (@garyhe) curious.

Agreed. RT @HotlineReid: Mistake. RT @JoNBCNews: Santorum will come to NH tomorrow and stay here til #fitn primary, according to staff.

One other assumption that is false: Departing candidate “X” endorses candidate “y” and most of his votes go to “y.” Very very sporadic.

I like to project things too. Like, it’s YOUR analysis that’s flawed. Or, YOUR candidate is wrong. Harumph.

RT @robertcaruso: @marcambinder channeling his inner Caruso on Iowa: PRICELESS #humbled I learned it from watching you, all right.

“So convenient ..it i to be a reasonable creature because it enables one to..make a reason for everything one has a mind to do.” (Franklin)

The same story and analysis apply to either scenario.

Folks, it does not matter at this point whether Santorum or Romney actually won. They both did. They tied. Go from there.

That would be “votes.” I don’t know how many otes they have in Iowa.

Watching CNN, it appears turnout is slightly higher than in 2008, by about 5K otes.

Ron Paul has little capacity to do well in states beyond NH, I think. Gingrich or Perry (not both - -a guess) will stick by for a while

Y’all knew I’d say this, but Dems are the winner of the night. The GOP contest will go on & the front-runner will be yanked to his starboard

Sometimes I think Verizon proposed its fee specifically so it could dump it and claim it “listens” to its customers.

“Pinker believes that people are more pacific when they have the time and the occasion to repeat interactions and reconsider their actions. Yet he has trouble ­acknowledging that, according to his own story, the one and only agent that can create that sort of cushioned society with educated minds and spare time has been the functional welfare state. This refusal seems rooted in Pinker’s commitment to free-market libertarianism. His book’s vision of a coming age of peace is a good example of how two trends favoring political passivity — the narcissistic discursiveness of the American left and the antistate prejudices of the American right — conspire in the same delusion: that while we talk, talk, talk, markets do the work of history. Unlike the Enlightenment thinkers he lauds, Pinker fails to see that the state is not simply, as he puts it, “an exogenous first domino” that fell long ago, beginning a chain of events but remaining motionless itself. L’état, c’est nous: the state is what we do, how we vote, the military service we do or do not perform, the taxes we do or do not pay, the federal grants that we do or do not apply for.”  (from Foreign Affairs)

This is a space for me to think and experiment a bit. Arrives Jan 1.